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McFadden, Gholston have look of NFL busts
Friday, September 5, 2008, 10:46 a.m. ET
Few players selected in the 2008 NFL draft displayed better measurable skills than Arkansas running back Darren McFadden and Ohio State end/linebacker Vernon Gholston. Both ran fast at the NFL Scouting Combine in February, with McFadden clocking in at 4.33 seconds in the 40-yard dash and Gholston crossing the tape in less than 4.7 seconds, remarkable for a 266-pound man.

I could not wait to study both on tape, anticipating that I would be evaluating two players who would make immediate and long-term impacts in the NFL. In the case of McFadden, I was led to believe he was as good as, or even better than, the Vikings' Adrian Peterson, who led the NFC in rushing and shattered the NFL single-game rushing record in '07.

I watched game after game, eight in all, and struggled to find the attributes that would project McFadden as being a big success in the NFL. The key in assessing college players is not to be blinded by production but rather to have a strong understanding of the traits and attributes that translate to the NFL game.

Think of the top running backs in the NFL, players like Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Fred Taylor. Even though each has his own distinct style, one characteristic they all share is lateral agility and explosiveness. They each have an elusiveness, a shiftiness that makes it difficult for defenders to get clean hits. They have that wiggle, that "shake and bake" that allows them to make unblocked defenders miss in the open field.

Lateral quickness and explosiveness is an essential trait to be an elite NFL runner. Great runners create space with their quick feet and elusiveness. They change direction almost effortlessly, with a fluidity and smoothness that belies their dynamic quickness.

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That's far more important than straight-line speed, which has little to do with being a top-line NFL back. McFadden's game is about downhill speed and acceleration. There is no question he is vertically explosive. He can run by people. And in Arkansas' version of the spread offense, with the wide splits by the offensive linemen and the defense stretched horizontally, McFadden at times was able to explode through gaping holes and simply outrun his pursuers.

But that's all the tape showed.

He lacked lateral agility, that innate ability to change direction and create space, while at the same time avoiding contact. He did not exhibit great balance or body control. He was not a natural runner with instincts and vision, which really concerns me as he transitions to the power-based and zone-based running games that define the NFL.

McFadden also ran with a narrow base, showing little physicality for a man who weighs 211 pounds. In fact, he often stopped his feet when he anticipated taking a hit, rarely running through tackles. I was surprised at how easily he went down.

It was as if McFadden collapsed upon contact.

I have no doubt McFadden will produce some electrifying plays this season with the Raiders, but he does not possess the attributes that produce excellence, or even consistency, as a feature back in the NFL.

Gholston was chosen sixth in last April's draft, two spots after McFadden. Gholston played defensive end at Ohio State, but the Jets project him as an outside linebacker in their 3-4 scheme. His size and speed profile was deemed the right combination for him to transition well to the NFL as an elite pass rusher.

A number of things struck me as I watched six Ohio State games on tape, and I did this after I witnessed his athletic feats at the NFL Combine. First, Gholston's athleticism on the field, during games, did not match his off-field measurable skills. He did not play anywhere near as fast as he timed in the 40-yard dash.

In addition, his level of energy and effort varied from play to play, game to game. He did not come across on film as a consistent competitor, and that's always a red flag. In fact, in three of the game tapes I broke down, I would not have known Gholston was on the field if not specifically watching him.

What made Gholston a tough evaluation was that he occasionally flashed the natural explosion off the snap and the burst and acceleration necessary to be an effective NFL edge rusher.

He was selectively explosive. He showed that against LSU in last year's national championship game. He played with intensity and effort, and his athletic ability and physicality stood out.

But other than the sporadic pass rush, Gholston did not show the attributes demanded to play outside linebacker in a base 3-4 scheme. He lacked change-of-direction skills, and he did not show quick movement in the open field. And that really jumped out on film in preseason.

Sure, there is a steep learning curve in the NFL from a mental standpoint, and that can limit reaction time, but Gholston showed no stop-and-start skills and little athleticism in preseason games. He was slow and plodding.

Gholston looks like a street free agent.

He is a project as an NFL outside linebacker and a question mark as a pass rusher, even with his hand on the ground at defensive end.

Greg Cosell of NFL Films analyzes coaching tape and is executive producer of State Farm NFL Matchup. He is a frequent contributor to Sporting News.

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Leinart, Alex Smith just aren't good enough
Friday, August 29, 2008, 11:38 a.m. ET
Alex Smith. Matt Leinart. As the 2008 season opens next week, neither is an NFL starting quarterback. Both have earned that status purely on merit.

For Smith, the No. 1-overall pick in the '05 draft, you have to go back to January of this year. That's when Mike Martz was hired as the San Francisco 49ers' offensive coordinator. That was the moment of truth for Smith. We knew he would face challenges he never could have anticipated.

No coordinator is tougher on quarterbacks than Martz. And he does not wait for game action to evaluate whether they have what it takes to be successful. It starts in the classroom and proceeds through offseason workouts and minicamps. Martz has a simple but powerful code: If a quarterback cannot handle his demanding and structured coaching in meetings and on the practice field, there is no way he can perform at a high level in front of 70,000 people on Sunday afternoon.

Martz's pass offense is predicated on exact and meticulous timing: The drop of the quarterback -- whether it's three steps, five steps or seven steps -- is coordinated precisely with the depths of the receivers' routes. There are no gray areas.

And it's all about tempo: Quickness of your drop into the pocket, speed of decision making, a compact delivery that gets the ball out fast. Think Marc Bulger when Martz was the head coach with the St. Louis Rams. It was drop, plant and throw with anticipation to receivers not even coming out of breaks yet.

You cannot be deliberate and methodical with Martz. And Smith does everything too slowly.

When studying tape of Smith's games this preseason, I saw a quarterback who was just not quick enough with his drop and set. He has a long throwing motion with a tendency to drop the ball down to his waist as he delivers. That takes too much time. And there's no snap to his throws.

Watch on film, and Smith's passes just don't come out with much on them. And it's not a function of arm strength. It's about transferring your weight from your back foot forward, so you drive through the throw. Smith does not do that, and that significantly impacts his ability to complete the intermediate 18- to 22-yard passes that are the staple of the Martz passing game.

And Smith does not have that cultivated sense of timing and anticipation. He waits too long to pull the trigger. You rarely see him let it loose before receivers come out of breaks, and that's the signature feature of the Martz system.

My sense is that Martz sees some Bulger in J.T. O'Sullivan. Like Bulger, O'Sullivan is not big or physical, does not have a rifle arm, but he has a quick and compact delivery and the ball gets out at the right time to the right receiver.

Combine tape study with an understanding of Martz's passing philosophy, and it's no surprise that Smith is not the starting quarterback for the 49ers.

Leinart is a little different. His shortcomings transcend coordinators and systems and will make it difficult for him to be a quality NFL starting quarterback.

Start with arm strength: It's average at best. And don't let people tell you that arm strength is overrated as a defining attribute in the NFL. You can not prosper at this level if you cannot make stick throws into tight windows in critical situations in the third and fourth quarters of close games. Leinart cannot do that with any consistency.

The only chance you have to be successful in the NFL with an average arm is to compensate by being very good in other areas.

Think of it his way: If you can't throw with enough velocity to defeat the speed and quickness of NFL defenses, and the varied and hybrid coverage schemes that are commonplace, you must have great timing, great anticipation, warp speed decision making and consistent accuracy in the short to intermediate areas. Leinart does not possess any of those attributes.

Watch Leinart on film, and you will see a sloppy and undisciplined quarterback with a deliberate drop, slow feet in the pocket and a methodical delivery.

Nothing about Leinart is quick and fast.

And there's one other issue that is hard to overcome. In the NFL, quarterbacks must be able to execute from the pocket with a lot of bodies around them. You do not get clean pockets often; you will not have functional space to step up and deliver comfortably the way you did in college, and certainly the way Leinart did at USC, when he was rarely under any duress.

Leinart really struggles when the pocket gets muddied. That's a function of his lack of precision and discipline. His fundamentals, not good to begin with, break down, and he does not have the foot quickness or arm strength to offset those deficiencies.

Leinart, to have any chance to be a quality NFL starter, must be a precise technician in everything he does. Up to this point, he is not even close to being that kind of player.

Greg Cosell of NFL Films analyzes coaching tape and is executive producer of State Farm NFL Matchup. He is a frequent contributor to Sporting News.

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